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The EU is preparing a legal and executive roadmap to complete exit of Russian energy sources by 2027. The Commission wants to stop all energy sources and adopt “a stepwise and gradual” roadmap this summer; though minimizing possible negative impact on some member states. The Commissioner for energy promises that the “unparalleled actions” in a drafted package of legislative proposals are going to be “fast and resolute”.
Background
Since the start of Russia-Ukraine military conflict in February 2022, the EU has worked hard to stop all import of Russian energy; it was done for two reasons: to secure the EU independence of Russia’s energy supplies, and to cease indirectly supporting the Russian war-economy. Thus, e.g. in imports of coal (before 2022), half of the coal used by the member states was from Russia, and this will be stopped completely; in oil the EU has already reduced the import from Russia from 26% to 3%; and on gas, the import has been reduced from 45% in 2022 to presently 13%.
The EU member states are supposed to “make mandatory national plans for phasing out Russian gas, nuclear fuel and oil; these plans need to be ready by the end of this year”. All imports of Russian gas under new contracts and existing spot contracts taking effect as of the end of this year will be terminated; besides, remaining imports of Russian pipeline gas and LNG under existing long-term contracts by the end 2027 will be banned.
Apart from fossil fuels, the EU also plans to take action against the import of nuclear fuels. This means introduction of new restrictions to phase out Russian imports of uranium, enriched uranium and other nuclear materials as well as introducing obligations aimed at transparent and diversified supplies. According to the Commissioner for energy, it “will make Russian fuels economically unattractive and strengthen the European Union nuclear fuel supply chain”.
Source and citations from the Commissioner remarks to press in: https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/da/speech_25_1145
Economic situation at the time of war
In 2020, the gross domestic product (GDP) of the EU stood at around €13 400 billion at current prices. In real terms, the EU’s GDP in 2020 was 7.6% higher than its level a decade ago. However, real GDP was 5.9% lower than its level in 2019; it was the first drop in EU GDP since 2009, when GDP declined by 4.3% compared with 2008. The decrease in economic activity and consequently in GDP at that time has been consistent with the restrictions implemented in 2020 to slow down the spread of COVID-19.
In 2020, slightly more than a quarter of the EU’s GDP was generated by Germany (25.1%), followed by France (17.2%) and Italy (12.3%), followed by Spain (8.4%) and the Netherlands (6.0%). European Union GDP growth rate for 2020 was -5.65%, a 7.46% decline from 2019.
In 2020, ten EU member states contributed less than one percent to the EU’s total GDP: Malta (which had the lowest share of EU GDP at 0.1%), Estonia, Cyprus and Latvia (all 0.2%), Croatia, Lithuania and Slovenia (all 0.4%), Bulgaria and Luxembourg (both 0.5%), and Slovakia (0.7%).
Source: https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/products-eurostat-news/-/ddn-20211220-1
Strange enough, but in the two combating states (Ukraine and Russia) the GDP growth rates are presently at 5,3 and 3,6 percent, correspondingly; whereas growth rates in major EU economies like France, Germany, Italy, etc. are less than one percent or even negative.
Source: https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.KD.ZG?locations=EU
The EU’s GDP is about $19.99 trillion in 2025 or $29.18 trillion (in PPP), representing around one-sixth of the global economy. Germany, France and Italy are the three largest economies in the European Union, accounting for approximately 52.6% of the EU’s total GDP. GDP Annual Growth Rate in European Union averaged 1.64 percent from 1996 until 2025, reaching an all time high of 14.70 percent in the second quarter of 2021 and a record low of -13.10 percent in the second quarter of 2020. Some say that despite headwinds from inflation, geopolitical risks, and global economic uncertainties, Europe will likely experience a modest acceleration in growth in 2025.
On some accounts, the gas import alone still accounts for about 19 percent of the EU’s energy supply. For example, in 2024, the EU paid €23 billion to Russia for import of energy sources, which is about €1.8 billion per month.
Legal hurdles
However, without formal sanctions, companies face legal obstacles to breaking long-term contracts, many of which include rigid “take-or-pay” clauses with Russian state owned Gazprom. The Commission is exploring options to enable firms to invoke legal doctrines like force majeure or hardship, though experts argue such arguments are weak due to ongoing Russian supply compliance and the time elapsed since the war broke out in 2022.
The move comes as the EU reiterates its 2027 goal to end all Russian fossil fuel imports and considers regulatory mechanisms, such as capping LNG purchases through an EU joint buying scheme.
With €18.5 billion worth of ongoing legal disputes between Gazprom and European firms, the EU’s success in crafting a viable legal exit strategy could significantly impact contractual risk management and energy sourcing decisions across the sector.