Perspectives for 2026: top European trends and predictions

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Although, most predictions are of little value, still any forecasting is well worth to consider; specifically, looking at what might happen in 2026 in the EU and worldwide. It is difficult to believe in the experts’ views on possible events, but some trends might be valuable. Thus, there are two most vital: the growth patterns, and the digital agenda – particularly in Europe; the AIs transitions from trials to valuable networks, with the use of neuron systems for practical use, are regarded “trendy” as well. 

Background. Various think tanks, political affiliations and analytical gurus are usually making possible predictions of an uncertain future. Some of them might be inaccurate, others might be right; but taken together, they can “sketch the landscape” in which the EU institutions, curious investors, governance agencies and decision-makers, etc. could be navigating the next year’s events.
For example, “The Visual Capitalist” analyzed over 2,000 predictions from articles, reports, podcasts and interviews to make some predictions for the year ahead. ng for the coming year.
It is for the seventh year, that the company is going through “the forecast landscape” bringing the so-called “prediction consensus”, as the analytical synthesis of available experts’ opinion.
Presently it analyzed over 2,000 individual predictions: from a wide variety of sources including Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs, the IMF, the Economist, Deloitte, Microsoft, Gartner, etc. used to make 25 prediction themes for 2026.
It seems, notes Visual Capitalist, that 2025 was a year of adjustments: i.e.to markets recalibrating to higher rates, with the geopolitics reshuffling in the US’s tariffs, as well as the AIs – moving from “hype to deployment”, etc. Hence, 2026 looks like “shaping up as a year of consolidation and consequence”.
The global “consensus mood” is cautiously optimistic, underlines Visual Capitalist; although with uncertainty Morgan Stanley describes 2026 as “the year of risk reboot”, as a period where market shifts from “macro anxieties to micro fundamentals”, creating fertile ground for risk assets and supportive policies, like fiscal stimulus, continued monetary easing and active deregulations (specifically in Europe).
However, the Economist takes a more realistic view, warning that 2026 will be defined by uncertainty as the US continue reshaping geopolitical rules that distort global trade. Thus, the age-old rules are dramatically altering with all the negative effects for global peace and stability.
Bottom-line: risks connotations might be exciting as the global and European trends remain turbulent.
More in: https://www.economist.com/topics/the-world-ahead-2026. General reference and citations from: Nick Routley N. Prediction Consensus: What the Experts See Coming in 2026. (2025). – Visual Capitalist. Markets. Prediction Consensus.

Economic predictions
Main developmental factors for 2026 are evident: geopolitics, economics, and technology. Thus, the IMF projected global growth at 3.2% in 2025 and 3.1% in 2026; which is below the pre-pandemic average of 3.7%, without recession. Morgan Stanley expected similar trends – 3 % global growth in 2025, and about 3.2% for both 2026 and 2027.
Global “advanced economies” are expected to grow with around 1.5-1.6%, while emerging markets can reach over 4%. As the Visual Capitalist” points out, the “consensus is a soft landing with caveats”: i.e. growth moderates, inflation continues its gradual descent and central banks ease policy lending. Thus, most central banks’ policy is expected to “continue normalizing”; e.g. Morgan Stanley’s prediction is that “the US Federal Reserve” will be cutting interest rates to 3.0-3.25% by mid-year and then pausing for an extended period and the British Bank is for 2,7%. The European Central Bank, ECB, predicts below-target inflation and sluggish growth; and Japan remains the outlier: the only major developed market central bank potentially hiking, with the BoJ expected to reach 0.75% by the end of 2025, before pausing.
The economic impact is being absorbed more gracefully than many feared: thus, the UBS expects a “soft patch” in early 2026 as tariffs affect US prices, followed by a broadening and strengthening of growth from since the second quarter onward. But the structural shift is profound: trade may reroute permanently, supply chains are diversifying and the US is still explicitly using tariffs as a tool of economic leverage.

Digital transition and AIs
The issue is once again a big issue for all countries: thus, for the third consecutive year, artificial intelligence dominates the prediction landscape, but the narrative has evolved. Where 2024 forecasts centered on whether AI hype was justified and 2025 focused on deployment at scale, the 2026 conversation is about integration and consequences.
AI is moving beyond answering questions to actively collaborating with people and amplifying their expertise. The next year is agentic for the AIs build-out: i.e. Deloitte predicts that by the end of 2026, as many as 75% of companies may be investing in agentic AI (so-called autonomous systems that can plan, act and adapt with limited human oversight). These AI agents are set to become “digital colleagues,” helping small teams getting weight: e.g. the Microsoft envisions a future where a three-person marketing team can launch a global campaign in days, with AI handling data crunching and content generation while humans steer strategy.
After years of anticipation, productivity gains from AI are finally expected to materialize in measurable ways. Morgan Stanley points to AI-driven efficiency as one of six key drivers of their bullish earnings outlook. Software and internet companies are expected to see generative AI revenue grow more than 20-fold over the next three years.
AI will impact the job market in other ways as well. Professional and knowledge-worker classes that previously felt insulated are now beginning to feel anxiety around job security.
General reference and citations from: https://www.visualcapitalist.com/prediction-consensus-what-the-experts-see-coming-in-2026/

EU perspectives: technology, geopolitics and economy
As the European Union approaches 2026, it faces a convergence of technological, geopolitical and economic transformations that are redefining the EU’s strategic policies. For example, rapid diffusion of artificial intelligence and digital technologies presents both an opportunity for productivity growth and a challenge for regulation, skills formation and social cohesion.
The EU’s emphasis on digital sovereignty and regulatory leadership reflects its attempts to balance innovation with normative dominance in governance.
The Economic notes that the EU “must increase defence spending, keep America on side, boost economic growth and deal with huge deficits, even though austerity risks stoking support for hard-right parties”, says the Economist’s editor, Tom Standage; and adds, that the EU “also wants to remain a leading advocate for free trade and greenery; it cannot do all of these at once, as a splurge on defence spending may lift growth, but only slightly”.
Source and citation from: https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2025/11/10/tom-standages-ten-trends-to-watch-in-2026

Geopolitically, the EU operates within an increasingly multipolar and fragmented international system. Strategic competition between major powers, combined with the weaponization of interdependence in areas such as energy, semiconductors, and data, has intensified pressures for strategic autonomy. At the same time, the EU remains structurally dependent on open trade and multilateral cooperation, creating persistent tensions between openness and resilience.
The EU is actively working on the “technological sovereignty” in such spheres as autonomy in digital infrastructure, critical technologies, such as AIs, Cloud, Quantum and data, urging reduced foreign dependence, boosting EU investment and better implementation of digital rules. The latter include the AI Act, Chips Act, etc. to secure strategic assets and prevent espionage, highlighting a strategic need to balance tech with security interests.
The Oxford’ publication “New geopolitics of EU cybersecurity” (indication below) refers to the EU’s strategic shift towards achieving digital sovereignty and autonomy, driven by concerns over dependence on foreign tech and geopolitical rivals (US/China), merging economic and security goals and leveraging regulatory power (like GDPR, NIS2, Cyber Resilience Act) to control digital infrastructure, data, and supply chains (semiconductors) as a geopolitical tool, essentially adopting a “regulatory mercantilism” to build resilience and project influence.
Economically, the EU confronts modest growth prospects, demographic aging, and high public debt in several member states. Investment in green and digital transitions is central to its long-term competitiveness, yet fiscal and political constraints limit the speed and scale of adjustment.
Taken together, these dynamics suggest that by 2026 the EU will be less defined by linear progress than by its capacity to manage trade-offs between integration and fragmentation, innovation and regulation, and autonomy and interdependence.

Notes and reference for the inquisitive readers:
1. Official EU reports and strategic documents
= 2025 Strategic Foresight Report. European Commission. “A forward-looking assessment of intersecting challenges for the EU including technology, strategic autonomy, economic resilience and geopolitics”. In:
Source: https://commission.europa.eu/strategy-and-policy/strategic-foresight/2025-strategic-foresight-report_en
= Strategic Foresight Report. European Commission. “Providing context on technological transformations, global trends, and strategic autonomy shaping the EU’s long-term policy horizon”. 2021.In:
https://commission.europa.eu/strategy-and-policy/strategic-foresight_en
= European Parliament. Report on Technological Sovereignty; it reviews the EU’s dependence on foreign technologies (AI, semiconductors, digital infrastructure) and policy options for strengthening sovereignty.
Source: https://www.europarl.europa.eu/doceo/document/A-10-2025-0107_EN.html
= EU Policy Foresight (European Parliament Briefing); it summarizes how EU institutions use foresight to anticipate trends in technology and strategic autonomy. 2025.
Source: EU policy foresight: Anticipating and shaping the EU’s future, in:
https://www.europarl.europa.eu/thinktank/en/document/EPRS_BRI(2025)765813

2. Academic and analytical Studies
= International Affairs (Oxford Academic). “New geopolitics of EU cybersecurity” (2024); it examines how technological dependence shapes EU cybersecurity and geopolitical strategy.
Source: OUP Academic: https://academic.oup.com/ia/article/100/6/2379/7852665
= ScienceDirect. “Technological sovereignty of the EU in advanced 5G communications”, in Telecommunications Policy. 2023. It offers conceptual grounding for technological sovereignty and competitive dependencies. In:
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0308596122001616
= EU Strategic Autonomy in Digital Struggle; it analyzes EU ambitions for digital sovereignty vis-à-vis dominant global tech actors. 2023. – SAIS Journal of Global Affairs (saisjournal.eu).
Source: https://kluwerlawonline.com/journalarticle/European+Foreign+Affairs+Review/28.4/EERR2023028
= DGAP Report. “Europe’s strategic technology autonomy from China: assessing foundational and emerging technologies”. 2023. Revealing dimensions of open strategic autonomy, including supply chains and geopolitical competition with China.

Source: https://dgap.org/en/research/publications/europes-strategic-technology-autonomy-china-assessing-foundational-and