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Generally, Western European states are within 82-84 life expectancy’s range world-wide, while Eastern countries are within 75-79. For example, such small states as Monaco and San Marino in Europe are having the highest world-wide ranks at about 86-87, followed by Andora and Switzerland at 84. Sure enough, women are having higher life expectancy than men in nearly every country in the world.
Background
World Population Prospects visualizing the-state-of-art in population’s longevity by the end of 2024 (as t8th edition of official United Nations population estimates and projections) have been prepared by the Population Division of the Department of Economic and Social Affairs of the United Nations Secretariat. It presents population estimates from 1950 to the present for 237 countries or areas, underpinned by analyses of historical demographic trends.
This latest assessment considers the results of 1,910 national population censuses conducted between 1950 and 2023, as well as information from vital registration systems and from 3,189 nationally representative sample surveys.
The 2024 revision also presents population projections to the year 2100 that reflect a range of plausible outcomes at the global, regional and national levels.
The Population Division of the Department of Economic and Social Affairs provides the international community with timely and accessible population data and analysis of population trends and development outcomes for all countries and areas of the world. To this end, the Division undertakes regular studies of population size and characteristics and of all three components of population change (fertility, mortality and migration). Founded in 1946, the Population Division provides substantive support on population and development issues to the United Nations General Assembly, the Economic and Social Council and the Commission on Population and Development. It also leads or participates in various inter-agency coordination mechanisms of the United Nations system.
Source: https://population.un.org/wpp/. Data citation: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2024). World Population Prospects 2024: Data Sources.
Further information on continental regions is available from: https://unstats.un.org/unsd/methodology/m49/.
Countries and areas have also been grouped into geographic regions based on the classification being used to track progress towards the Sustainable Development Goals of the United Nations in: https://unstats.un.org/sdgs/indicators/regional-groups/
Global picture
Life expectancy in Japan (4 place in the rankings), South Korea (the 5th), and Australia (at 10th) are the three top-10 countries with the highest life expectancies (84+) when accounting for a population of more than 20 million people: most of the top 10 countries are just small-sized territories and states. Whereas, most Asian countries have life expectancies between 70–80 years, e.g. Pakistan, Afghanistan and Papua New Guinea are below the 70-year threshold.
Several African countries have a below-60 life expectancy, a projected lifespan that is a full 20 years shorter than Western European residents; e.g. Nigeria has the lowest average life expectancy at birth, at 55 years.
In fact, data shows that the biggest difference between life expectancies of Africa and high-income regions are for those before the age of 5 and after 60: this is because both babies and older adults have a need for specific medical infrastructures which many Africans don’t have access to; generally, HALE abbreviation means “healthy life expectancy”.
Reference to: https://www.givewell.org/international/technical/additional/life-expectancy-in-SSA.
Growing global population
The world’s population is likely to peak during this century, with the following statistics:
• The world’s population is expected to continue growing over the coming 50 or 60 years, reaching a peak of around 10.3 billion people in the mid-2080s, up from 8.2 billion in 2024.
• After peaking, the global population is projected to start declining gradually, falling to 10.2 billion people by the end of the century.
• The estimated likelihood that the world’s population will peak within the current century is very high (with a probability of 80 per cent).
• This represents a major change compared to projections published by the United Nations in 2013, when the estimated probability that global population growth would end during the twenty-first century was around 30 per cent.
• The size of the world’s population in 2100 is now expected to be 6 per cent smaller – or about 700 million people fewer – than anticipated a decade ago.
• The earlier occurrence of a peak in the projected size of the global population is due to several factors including lower-than-expected levels of fertility in recent years in some of the world’s largest countries, particularly China. Besides, in 63 countries and areas – containing 28 per cent of the world’s population in 2024 – the size of the population peaked before 2024: this group includes China, Germany, Japan and the Russian Federation.
• The number of people living in these locations is projected to decline by 14 per cent over the next thirty years, with Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Lithuania, Puerto Rico and the Republic of Moldova recording the largest relative reductions by 2054 among countries and areas with at least 90,000 inhabitants in 2024.
• In 48 countries and areas, representing 10 per cent of the world’s population in 2024, the population size is projected to peak between 2025 and 2054. This group includes Brazil, the Islamic Republic of Iran, Türkiye and Viet Nam.
In the remaining 126 countries and areas, the population is likely to continue growing through 2054, potentially reaching a peak later in the century or beyond 2100.
Older population
By 2080, persons aged 65 or older will outnumber children under 18, thus, e.g.:
• By the late 2070s, the number of persons at ages 65 years and higher globally is projected to reach 2.2 billion, surpassing the number of children (under age 18). By the mid-2030s, it is projected that there will be 265 million persons aged 80 years or older, more than the number of infants (1 year of age or less).
• In countries where the size of the population has already peaked or is projected to peak in the coming decades, the crossover between the number of children and persons aged 65 or older will occur sooner.
• Even in countries with populations that are still growing rapidly and have relatively youthful populations, the number of persons aged 65 or older is expected to rise over the next 30 years.
= NB. In around 100 countries and areas, the share of population in the working ages (between 20 and 64 years) will continue to increase more rapidly than the total population between now and 2054, providing a window of opportunity known as the “demographic dividend”.
Source and citation from: https://population.un.org/wpp/assets/Files/WPP2024_Summary-of-Results.pdf
Other interesting data
For some countries and regions, immigration will be the main driver of future growth.
• In 50 countries and areas, immigration is projected to attenuate the decline in population size caused by sustained low levels of fertility and an older age structure.
• For countries such as Italy, Germany and the Russian Federation, where population size has already peaked, the peak would have occurred sooner in the absence of immigration.
• Immigration is projected to be the main driver of population growth in 52 countries and areas world-wide through 2054 and in 62 through 2100, including Australia, Canada and the US.
• Emigration generally does not have a major impact on the population size in a country, but in 14 states and areas they are already experiencing ultra-low fertility: i.e. emigration is likely to be a major driver of population loss between now and 2054.
• In countries where fertility levels are already below the replacement level, the emigration of people in the reproductive age range can further depress population growth. In such countries, creating more opportunities for decent work and promoting return migration could be more effective at slowing population decline in the short run than policies aimed at raising fertility levels.
Population trends in achieving sustainable development goals
The world’s population is expected to continue growing over the coming 50 or 60 years, reaching a peak of around 10.3 billion people in the mid-2080s, up from 8.2 billion in 2024; and after peaking, the global population is projected to start declining returning to 10.2 billion people by the end of the century. While there is some uncertainty around the future size of the world’s population, the estimated likelihood that it will peak within the current century is 80 per cent, with the peak likely to occur sometime between the mid-2060s and 2100.
This represents an important change compared to projections produced by the United Nations a decade ago, when the estimated probability that world population growth would end during the twenty-first century was around 30 per cent.
The size of the world’s population in 2100 is now expected to be 6 per cent smaller – or about 700 million people fewer – than anticipated a decade ago. This earlier occurrence of a peak in the projected size of the global population is due to such factors as, e.g. lower-than-expected levels of fertility observed in recent years in some of the world’s largest countries, particularly China, and slightly faster-than-anticipated fertility declines in some parts of sub-Saharan Africa.
The fact that the peak in the global population is projected to occur earlier and at a lower level than previously anticipated is important for several reasons. First, it signals the end of the era of rapid population growth, which began around 1800 in some regions and in the middle of the twentieth century on a global scale. Second, given that population growth tends to amplify environmental pressures by adding to total economic demand, it has implications for progress towards a more sustainable future, since the aggregate demand for food, housing, infrastructure and services, among others, will likely be smaller with the global population peaking earlier
and at a lower level.
Distant future…
Future population trends are uncertain, especially in the long run: i.e. the increase of uncertainty over time is reflected in the widening band of prediction intervals for projections at dates farther into the future: one of the main sources of this uncertainty is the trend in the annual number of births.
The projections of the cited recent WPP-2024 involves a series of assumptions relating to fertility: i.e. for countries where large families are still prevalent, it is assumed that fertility will continue to decline. For countries where women are having or are projected to have, on average, fewer than two live births over a lifetime and that fulfill a series of other conditions, it is assumed that there will be a slight rebound in fertility levels in the years ahead.
When applied to populous high-fertility countries such as Nigeria or populous low-fertility countries such as China, these assumptions can influence global population trends long into the future.
Today, countries are at very different stages of the demographic transition: in 63 countries and
areas, containing 28 per cent of the world’s population in 2024, the population peaked in size before or during 2024, meaning that these locations are now in a post-transitional stage; this group (referred to throughout the report as countries with populations that peaked by 2024) includes China, Germany, Japan and the Russian Federation.
Source: https://population.un.org/wpp/