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As a key driver of socio-economic development, the energy system has a dual role as both determinant and solution to climate change. While fossil fuels production and consumption are responsible for about 90% of all CO2 emissions and more than 75% of GHG emissions, according to the UN in 2022-23, transitioning processes in the EU-wide and global energy systems are the most impactful climate mitigation strategies.
Background
Reducing reliance on fossil fuels and increasing the share of renewable energy (RE) sources – hydro, wind, solar, biomass, geothermal etc. is seen by many as the answer to environmental degradation caused by anthropogenic activities. Countries have made progress in greening their energy sources, as RE’s share of worldwide total primary energy consumption doubled from 6.43% in 2000 to 12.01% in 2021.
Source: BP Statistical Review of World Energy (2022), in: https://www.bp.com/content/dam/bp/business-sites/en/global/corporate/pdfs/energy-economics/statistical-review/bp-stats-review-2022-full-report.pdf
The 4.6% drop in GHG emissions during the pandemic in 2020 provided in the EU’s quarters some hope for combating negative climate change; however, the resumption of economic activity and countries’ heavy reliance on fossil fuels have increased worldwide consumption-based CO2 emissions by over 46% in already in 2021.
Source “You’ll never walk alone: investigating the spillover effects in countries’ transition towards a low-carbon future”: in: https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/00036846.2025.2453759
The European scene
The road ahead will be difficult because EU member countries have different development needs and ambitions, as well as different economic structures, education levels, and business sophistication.
More in “Diverse pathways to decarbonization: cluster-specific impacts of energy sources on CO2 emissions in the European Union” (Chovancová et al., 2025). In: https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2772427125000087
These factors may make it more difficult for some EU countries to implement necessary actions, hence jeopardizing the net-zero goal; on another hand, these states have advantages when properly considering and designing environmental policies, to promote this goal. Numerous actions can assist in achieving the net-zero target on the states and the EU levels: i.e. high-quality educational systems, population access to advanced education, highly interconnected economies, significant progress on inclusion and social factors, high population and labour force mobility, as well as intensive collaboration among companies, authorities, universities and sophisticated industry chains, just to name a few.
Reference to the McKinsey Global Institute (2022), in: https://www.mckinsey.com/featured-insights/future-of-work.
Besides, the digital dimension of the twin transition towards Industry 4.0 and Industry 5.0, programmatically supported at EU level, complements these advantages.
Source: Kwilinski A. (2024) “Understanding the nonlinear effect of digital technology development on CO2 reduction”, https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1002/sd.2964
Moreover, EU countries must increase the adoption of technology and digitalization, which can aid in the optimization of countries’ energy systems and lower the cost of low-carbon and RE sources. Ultimately, financing the transition is vital to its success. The amounts required to support the net-zero transition in EU-27 plus Norway, Switzerland, and the United Kingdom is estimated at 32 trillion USD with investments in low-emissions assets and enabling infrastructure accounting for the lion’s share and it remains to be seen whether such financing demands will be met.
Energy Transition Institute, Statistical Review of World Energy 2023. In: https://www.energy-transition-institute.com/article/statistical-review-of-world-energy-2023
Striving to become the world’s first climate-neutral continent by 2050. The EU aims to be climate-neutral by 2050 – an economy with net-zero greenhouse gas emissions. This objective is at the heart of the European Green Deal, and is a legally binding target thanks to the European Climate Law. At the heart of the AI–energy nexus, the oil and gas companies around the world are both power suppliers for energy-grids and AI adopters, using automation to boost efficiency, cut costs, as well as strengthen resilience amid fierce global competition.
The EU’s strategic directions
The European Green Deal is the EU’s growth strategy aiming at achieving climate neutrality by 2050 through a green transition. Several key theoretical perspectives help explain and frame this strategy, while various research approaches were adopted to better understand and facilitate decarbonization efforts.
The future of power and energy in the EU is focused on decarbonization through a massive expansion of renewable energy, especially solar and wind, along with increased energy efficiency and electrification. Key strategies include reaching a binding renewable energy target of 42.5% by 2030 (with an ambition for 45%), boosting energy efficiency by 11.7%, and strengthening cross-border grid connections to create a more flexible and decentralized energy system. This transition aims to reduce dependence on imported fossil fuels, lower costs, and increase energy security and strategic autonomy.
Thus, among European key strategies and goals there are the following:
= Renewable energy expansion: the EU is rapidly increasing renewable energy capacity, with solar power seeing a particularly significant surge.
= Reaching the 2030 target: the binding target is 42.5% of total energy consumption from renewables, with an aspiration to reach 45%.
= Capacity growth: renewable power capacity is projected to nearly triple by 2030 compared to 2021 levels.
= Energy efficiency: improving energy efficiency is a major priority to reduce overall demand and reliance on imports.
= The 2030 goal: the EU aims for an 11.7% improvement in energy efficiency by 2030.
= Electrification and integration: the future energy system will rely more on electricity for heating and transport, and will need a more integrated and flexible system to handle the increased renewable generation.
= Energy system integration: this approach involves a more decentralized system to better absorb fluctuating renewable sources.
= Infrastructure and storage: significant investment in grid modernization and energy storage is crucial.
= Grid interconnection: the interconnection target for 2030 (about 15 percent) encourages EU-27 countries to connect their electricity systems.
= Energy storage: battery technology and other storage solutions are key to balancing the grid and storing excess renewable energy for when it is needed.
= Reduced fossil fuel dependency: the war in Ukraine has accelerated the EU’s efforts to phase out Russian fossil fuels, which has reduced reliance on imported fossil fuels and improved energy security.
= Impact: sanctions and diversification efforts have significantly decreased the import of Russian oil and gas, and the EU aims to phase out these imports as quickly as possible.
Besides, among some expected outcomes are the following:
= Energy security and independence: a greater reliance on domestic, renewable energy sources will reduce dependence on volatile global fossil fuel markets.
= Lower energy costs: in the medium to long term, shifting to cheaper renewable energy sources is expected to lower wholesale electricity prices.
= Increased resilience: the move to a more flexible and decentralized energy system will make the EU more resilient to future shocks and geopolitical instability.
Note. Recent Commission’s moves to phase-out Russian fossil fuels: i.e. “effectively and permanently stop the import of Russian gas and move towards the phaseout of Russian oil under the provisional political agreement reached by the European Parliament and the Council” this December (the initial agreement dates March 2022), would make it complicated to substitute decades-old cheap supplies from Russia.
Source: https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/ip_25_2860
Energy mix
The energy available in the European Union (EU) comes from energy produced in the EU and from energy imported from non-EU countries. Therefore, to get a good overview of the total energy available in the EU, energy production should always be put into context alongside imports.
In 2023, the EU produced around 42% of its own energy, while 58% was imported. Petroleum products have the largest share in the EU energy mix: in 2023, the energy mix in the EU (valued in the range of energy sources available), mainly consisted of 5 different sources: – crude oil and petroleum products (37.7%); – natural gas (20.4%); – renewable energy (19.5%); – solid fuels (10.6%), and – nuclear energy (11.8%).
The shares of the different energy sources in the gross available energy vary considerably between EU countries. In 2023, the share of petroleum products in available energy was highest in Cyprus (86.3%), Malta (85.6%) and Luxembourg (61.1%), while natural gas was a significant energy source in Italy (34.8%), the Netherlands (29.5%), Hungary (29.1%) and Ireland (28.5%). Renewables had the largest share in Sweden (50.2%) and Latvia (44.7%), while nuclear energy accounted for 39.1% of energy available in France and 28.8% in Slovakia. The share of solid fuels was highest in Estonia (53.4%) and Poland (35.5%).
Eurostat. Interactive publications. “Shedding light on energy in Europe -2025 edition” in: https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/interactive-publications/energy-2025
Alternative renewable energy sources
In a policy context established by the European Union’s 2050 net-zero aim, we explore the relevance of low-carbon and alternative renewable energy sources to carbon dioxide emissions in EU-27 countries. Renewable energy, particularly hydro and wind, reduces CO2 emissions, making it the best source for decarbonization. Globalization and Internet use, by contrast, raise emissions, posing a significant challenge for the EU-27. The transformation of the EU-27 countries’ energy mix is a complex endeavor due to the diversity of their energy systems and economic development levels, but we see three fundamental directions for this happening: continuing the progress towards a low-carbon society while also considering climate risk analysis; accelerating the energy transition by taking collective and bold action to meet the established goals; and implementing effective energy policies in the deployment of renewable energy.
A recent study uncovered additional factors in “fostered decoupling of environmental protection and economic development” both in adoption of RE measures and in the “green” transition and technological innovation.
Source: Horobet A., Tudor C. D., Belascu L., Herciu M. and Ogrean C. (2025). The future of energy in the European Union: balancing renewable growth with globalization and digitalization. – Journal of Applied Economics, 28(1). https://doi.org/10.1080/15140326.2025.2548821
The future of energy in the EU is based on balancing renewable growth with globalization and digitalization. Electricity demand will rise mainly due to a projected 20-40% increase from the industry and buildings sectors by 2050, according to the report, with North American data centres seen as the biggest contributors to the surge.
When trying to understand what energy in Europe might look like in the future, the most important question to ask is simply what does energy in Europe look like today?
With a few exceptions, electricity across the continent is obtained primarily through coal and gas, with oil playing a significant part. Coal, gas and oil also contributes the most to the total final consumption of all fuels in Europe.
More on the EU-wide energy consumption in 2013:
https://www.sustaineurope.com/the-future-of-energy-in-europe.html
As well as in the already mentioned Eurostat-Interactive publications. “Shedding light on energy in Europe (2025)”. https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/interactive-publications/energy-2025
Renewable energy: power generation
Such renewable energy (RE) sectors as hydro and wind are reducing carbon emissions in Europe, making the RE the ideal sources for achieving the EU-wide “green deal’s” goals. Both wind power and hydropower consistently had negative influences on emissions, with wind showing the strongest pollution mitigation potential in models considering either globalization or digitalization. The energy transition is complicated by intra-EU trade, which underpins economic integration, and digitalization, which drives the twin transition. GDP positively affects emissions in EU countries, indicating that their development level has not yet hit the EKC threshold for negative emissions.
The revised Renewable Energy Directive (2023/2413) raises the EU’s binding renewable target for 2030 to a minimum of 42.5% share of renewables in the energy mix, up from the previous 32% target, with the aspiration to reach 45%. It means almost doubling the existing share of renewable energy in the EU.
Renewable energies account for the highest share in energy production: renewable energy (46% of total EU energy production) was the largest contributing source to energy production in the EU in 2023. Nuclear energy (29%) was the second largest source, followed by solid fuels (17%), natural gas (5%) and crude oil (3%).
However, the production of renewable energy is very different among the EU member states: e.g. in 2023, renewable energy was the exclusive source of energy production in Malta (i.e. it did not produce any other type of energy) and represented at least half in 15 other EU states; e.g. with shares of 99.4% in Latvia, 98.0% in Portugal and 96.5% in Cyprus.
The production of nuclear energy was quite significant in France (72% of total national energy production), Slovakia (65%) and Belgium (59%). Solid fuels were the main source of energy produced in Poland (67%), Estonia (59%) and Czechia (43%). Natural gas had the largest share in the Netherlands (41%), Romania (35%) and Ireland (31%), while the share of crude oil was largest in Denmark (30%).
For example, the share of energy production by source (in 2023, in %) was the following: RE- 46; nuclear -28,6; solid fuels -16,6; natural gas -5.3, and crude oil -3,4.
Source: https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/interactive-publications/energy-2025